View Full Version : Long-term economics of the pandemic
catherine
11-15-20, 11:54am
I've read a couple of articles lately that suggest that the post-pandemic economy will under go a big shift, and will never go back to where it was.
Any prognosticators wish to weigh in on what the post-pandemic economy will look like? I'm not saying it's going to be good or bad.. this is not a "sky is falling" question. It's just in general: how is "business as usual" going to change..for good or for bad?
To grease the wheels, here is what Forbes thinks (https://www.forbes.com/sites/gadlevanon/2020/08/17/what-the-post-pandemic-economy-will-look-like/?sh=632058567835).
A lot of small businesses will close permanently. Already at work we are hearing contractors say some customers, when faced with a large repair, are choosing to close rather than fix the building. They said they survived one lockdown but cannot survive a second one which they fear is coming.
catherine
11-15-20, 12:41pm
A lot of small businesses will close permanently.
Do you think the small businesses will be replaced with new small businesses to fill in all those shuttered storefronts? Or do you think corporate entities will be more able to fill the gap? i.e. will the little local clothing shop on Church Street in Burlington be replaced by Athletica/Gap? This is what I fear. It might take a long time for the business owners who otherwise might start on a shoestring to take that risk. Or will this change the face of small towns as retail shifts to predominantly online. What will Main Street look like then?
The trend to offshoring will decrease because the cost of many employees going remote will benefit their employers. As Forbes noted, education especially post-secondary institutions will need to change to respond the reduced income of many and the borrowing costs of student loans have made them unbearable.
Skilled trades will be in demand. Housing will change from bricks and mortar to unit prefabs assembled onsite to make housing affordable.
The power of accountants who have ruined many industries by playing the numbers to meet short-term management desires will be reduced and local jobs will return.(OK, this is a wish)
Food supply will be locally produced more often and develop as a small business. Hopefully this will occur in most communities.
These are my immediate thoughts.
iris lilies
11-15-20, 1:17pm
It is not a good time for commercial landlords, commercial real estate agents, commercial builders.
happystuff
11-15-20, 2:06pm
I believe there will be a definite divide in the workforce - those with the types of jobs that can be done from home and those that must be 'out in the world' to support those staying home... i.e. online warehousing, deliveries, manufacturing, etc. Staying home and working from home is great! But there is an large workforce that is out doing the physical work making many work-at-home jobs possible. I think a divide - socially and economically - is currently underway and widening in this regard.
Food carts are making a strong comeback, I see.
And I hope home delivery is here to stay.
rosarugosa
11-15-20, 2:53pm
I believe there will be a definite divide in the workforce - those with the types of jobs that can be done from home and those that must be 'out in the world' to support those staying home... i.e. online warehousing, deliveries, manufacturing, etc. Staying home and working from home is great! But there is an large workforce that is out doing the physical work making many work-at-home jobs possible. I think a divide - socially and economically - is currently underway and widening in this regard.
The stay-at-home orders earlier this year really highlighted this divide.
rosarugosa
11-15-20, 3:03pm
The businesses that I've seen closing so far are mostly those that were on the edge already, and Covid just helped to push them over. A lot of movie theaters were probably already on the way out due to the rise in popularity of in-home streaming services. I think that many small businesses that don't have deep pockets will close, but then as things turn around, new businesses will open up. There will probably be a less than 1:1 replacement for retail since people are doing more shopping online, but I would expect restaurants to rebound. This is probably a great time to open a bakery or gourmet shop or restaurant that is primarily take-out, especially if offering something different or better.
ApatheticNoMore
11-15-20, 3:40pm
Of course those working from home also make not work from home jobs safer or enable it to be safer, as there's that much less virus spreading. Anyway none of that is going to last beyond the virus. We'll all be doing the 40 minute commutes to go 10 miles again (and that's a short commute). But if I was looking for a new employer and was not desperate I'd look into which ones allowed work from home in a pandemic, and preferentially choose them. Because if it's office work there is no reason it can't be done at home, and they showed they cared about their employees enough to allow it in the pandemic.
I have no idea what the economics will be. I just hope things don't get harder for working people than they already are because it's ridiculous. Some things might recover fast due to pent up demand. But then there is the fact that people have accrued tons of debt for things like rent as evictions have been forbidden and people haven't been able to pay. So that's a lot of people with no discretionary income and maybe no ability to pay debt and in the worst case maybe no housing. Businesses and restaurants have closed, new shops have opened here even in a pandemic (one of which is so niche I wouldn't give it good odds an economic boom).
Personally I'm more inclined to order online going forward, but I often do that direct from the manufacturer website and avoid the middleman. And maybe a bit less inclined to buy anything. It's not what I miss. It just made my life more hectic which I see clearly in forced un-hecticness (as did commuting but meh). Going to stores is just a drain! (although occasionally necessary). Even grocery shopping can be done once a week! I only miss people, including group activities, including strangers hanging out at a coffee house or restaurant. People are what matters, hey who would have known? And the ability to get out of the house now and then!
I think in a way WE'VE ALL GOTTEN LAZIER! :). Now I want my stuff to come to me, and maybe even want my bills paid online because I'm too lazy to mail them. I haven't gone to the bank almost at all (used to every 2 weeks) and just used a credit card mostly. All gotten lazier because life was so hectic we didn't even fully realize it was hectic and that it didn't have to be so hectic. I don't think this is good for the economy really. But I'm just tired of sacrificing myself for the economy.
catherine
11-15-20, 4:04pm
Timely... my son just texted me to say that his restaurant his closing as of tonight. I'm so sad for them. These are the people that bought the restaurant 3 weeks before the March lock-down. Talk about bad luck. They're very young, too. Early 30s with young families.
The bad news overall is that the economic scars of the pandemic are not only likely to linger for years but also exacerbate the decades-long trend of rising income inequality.
I think this is one of the big ones. I feel like there are many, many opportunities for making things better and keeping people employed - programs like the CCC of the 1930s. But due to political divisions, they probably would never get off the ground. Realistically, I think corporations will continue to rule since they have had the financial power and political flout to stay afloat. I wonder a lot about the world we are leaving our grandchildren:(.
happystuff
11-15-20, 5:34pm
I think in a way WE'VE ALL GOTTEN LAZIER! :). Now I want my stuff to come to me...
This is partly what I was trying to allude to in my previous post. Folks want there stuff to come to them, but it takes other people to get up and out to do that for them. Grocery deliveries, Amazon orders, online orders of any kind, really - whether direct from the manufacturer or thru a 3rd party... there are people getting up and going out to work in those warehouses, load the packages, deliver the packages, etc.
This is partly what I was trying to allude to in my previous post. Folks want there stuff to come to them, but it takes other people to get up and out to do that for them. Grocery deliveries, Amazon orders, online orders of any kind, really - whether direct from the manufacturer or thru a 3rd party... there are people getting up and going out to work in those warehouses, load the packages, deliver the packages, etc.
And being employed, for which I bet they're thankful--as I am for not having to go out and forage for groceries. Win-win.
ApatheticNoMore
11-15-20, 5:51pm
This is partly what I was trying to allude to in my previous post. Folks want there stuff to come to them, but it takes other people to get up and out to do that for them. Grocery deliveries, Amazon orders, online orders of any kind, really - whether direct from the manufacturer or thru a 3rd party... there are people getting up and going out to work in those warehouses, load the packages, deliver the packages, etc.
yea for months I bought nothing (eh but tp, masks,yea food at the grocery store) out of consideration for those workers, I wanted to STOP THE ECONOMY, and deal with the pandemic first, even if it took until early fall at worst. Okay, that might be my position, but it is not the position of the Powers That Be, and it is fundamentally a social and government decision not a me decision, New Zealand that was a government choice, it wasn't an individual choice.
Months upon months in and I'm not going to keep taking personal responsibility for a pandemic the government outright refuses to solve (other than I go nowhere almost and yes I wear a mask, and I keep distance). They have all the actual power. And anyway a year of buying nothing (and we're heading toward a year) and every business just goes under anyway, pretty soon even all the places I like to buy clothes go under etc. and I don't even have anywhere I want to buy clothes when it all ends and clothes are actually something I will need in the future. I've bought less than usual I suppose, amazing how long clothes can actually last because there are only a few things you are comfortable buying online. There would be people going to work if I bought clothes in person too but nah I don't think trying on clothes feels remotely safe.
rosarugosa
11-15-20, 5:58pm
Timely... my son just texted me to say that his restaurant his closing as of tonight. I'm so sad for them. These are the people that bought the restaurant 3 weeks before the March lock-down. Talk about bad luck. They're very young, too. Early 30s with young families.
That's so sad, Catherine? Are they closing for good?
Interestingly, I was just reading that 3 new restaurants opened in Newburyport, MA this summer. I wonder how they will fare.
rosarugosa
11-15-20, 6:01pm
yea for months I bought nothing (eh but tp, masks,yea food at the grocery store) out of consideration for those workers, I wanted to STOP THE ECONOMY, and deal with the pandemic first. Okay, that might be my position, but it is not the position of the Powers That Be, and it is fundamentally a social and government decision not a me decision, New Zealand that was a government choice, it wasn't an individual choice.
Months upon months in and I'm not going to keep taking personal responsibility for a pandemic the government outright refuses to solve (other than I go nowhere almost and yes I wear a mask, and I keep distance). They have all the actual power afterall. And anyway a year of buying nothing and every business just goes under anyway, pretty soon even all the places I like to buy clothes go under etc. and I don't even have anywhere I want to buy clothes when it all ends and clothes are actually something I will need in the future. I've bought less than usual I suppose, amazing how long clothes can actually last because there are only a few things you are comfortable buying online. There would be people going to work if I bought clothes in person too but nah I don't think trying on clothes feels remotely safe.
Now trying on clothes doesn't really seem unsafe to me. I would think a fitting room would be about the safest place in the store.
And being employed, for which I bet they're thankful--as I am for not having to go out and forage for groceries. Win-win.
The lines aren't that clear. I think it would be a lot more understandable if we had two classes of people:
1. Low Risk who go out and work and get hazard pay
2. High risk who stay home, don't have guests only household members in their homes, and only leave their property to go to isolated places like deserted hiking trips where no one else is around, or to go to emergency medical appointments
Instead we have:
High risk people working who should be home collecting unemployment
People working outside the home not getting hazard pay, some having hours or pay cuts, and being criticized if they find it difficult to wear a mask 8 hours a day, criticism in many cases coming from people privileged enough to work from home or who are retired and don't have to work
Low risk people not being matched with jobs, but for months being able to collect more from unemployment than from working
High risk people who have the luxury to stay home going out unnecessarily, not availing themselves of free delivery services, hosting social gatherings, and crying discrimination if anyone suggests they adjust their behavior since they are high risk
ApatheticNoMore
11-15-20, 6:09pm
Now trying on clothes doesn't really seem unsafe to me. I would think a fitting room would be about the safest place in the store
but what about shirts especially, you have to pull them over your face, other people have pulled them over their face - maybe touched their mouth or nose.
ApatheticNoMore
11-15-20, 6:16pm
High and low risk would require everyone know everyone else's health conditions, does anyone even want that to work? Oh x can't come to the office she's a cancer survivor - bet you didn't know that (!), oh y can't come to the office he has diabetes weren't you aware? Mr z though is a perfect physical specimen as far as anyone can tell, he's at his desk now.
When I tried on bras at a lingerie shop recently, I was told that each one that I tried on would be kept separate for 72 hours to prevent Covid concerns. Large department stores don't do that, do they?
When I tried on bras at a lingerie shop recently, I was told that each one that I tried on would be kept separate for 72 hours to prevent Covid concerns. Large department stores don't do that, do they?
Macy's was doing 24 hours in some states, I don't know if they still are.
dado potato
11-15-20, 7:01pm
I believe the global pandemic has triggered an economic recession.
Sectors such as bars and restaurants, amusement parks, cruise lines, airlines, lodging, etc. are on "life support". I am sure there are many other sectors in peril of bankruptcy. Landlords of shopping centers and malls, entertainment venues, and office buildings are reportedly still able to collect most of the rent. I suppose that in the USA "government bailouts" have enabled this. Commercial Mortgage Backed Securities (mainly owned by pension funds and insurance companies) could quickly become worthless without a renewal of bottomless government bailouts.
These are hard times. We must nurture and support each other, as best we can. I intend to buy local whenever I can. But I also feel a need to grow my own whenever I can, because I expect higher prices in the future. New shoots of economic vitality will appear... that's where the greatest employment opportunity will be seized by our children and grand-children.
happystuff
11-15-20, 9:58pm
And being employed, for which I bet they're thankful--as I am for not having to go out and forage for groceries. Win-win.
And, again, this is the divide I was referring to. Yes, grateful to have a job! Running through a warehouse 8 hours straight at minimum wage, with other workers who have been who-knows-where, to provide the goods for folks staying in-house so they don't have to go out and "forage". (part sarcasm, part honest frustration)
This is not a "they"... this is ME!
ApatheticNoMore
11-15-20, 10:31pm
And, again, this is the divide I was referring to. Yes, grateful to have a job! Running through a warehouse 8 hours straight at minimum wage, with other workers who have been who-knows-where, to provide the goods for folks staying in-house so they don't have to go out and "forage". (part sarcasm, part honest frustration)
so we should go to the store instead? I recently bought a "tea ball" at bed, bath and beyond from the website. One can argue how necessary that is, probably MUCH LESS so than a salad spinner! should I have gone to the store? But they don't have the one I wanted at the local store nor did the manufacturer (that's the thing if stores want us to shop at them maybe they should *do better* because they have become more and more disappointing). I admit I'm picky with purchases. How many miles should I have drove to find a store that does? Or wait until the pandemic is over? Well like most I have lost most hope the end is anywhere in sight. Is the idea that we should shop retail as retail workers are so much better treated. Are they really though?
What seems like foraging is thrifting, because the likelihood of the thrifts having things except for a few things is always low, so I could forage for week after week there, which I have done for low priority things before, but somehow thrifting in a pandemic just has no appeal at all.
I had thought early in the crisis that we were destined for a major recession or depression, but now I'm not so sure. A large portion of the working class has managed work arounds and ways to stay gainfully employed. Money that they might have spend in restaurants, luxury vacations and other service industry jobs is now being spent on new economies. Digital commerce, new appliances, and things like bike shops routinely in the news as being sold out of much of their inventory. Real estate was already sky high and is now even higher. No doubt there is new unemployment and people suffering financially, but it's nothing like the financial crisis. At least yet.
ApatheticNoMore
11-15-20, 10:49pm
I had thought early in the crisis that we were destined for a major recession or depression, but now I'm not so sure. A large portion of the working class has managed work arounds and ways to stay gainfully employed. Money that they might have spend in restaurants, luxury vacations and other service industry jobs is now being spent on new economies. Digital commerce, new appliances, and things like bike shops routinely in the news as being sold out of much of their inventory. Real estate was already sky high and is now even higher. No doubt there is new unemployment and people suffering financially, but it's nothing like the financial crisis. At least yet.
yea I agree, I thought most restaurants would be closed by fall. Not at all, a few restaurants closed though, one I liked a lot, whether the restaurants doing take out and outdoor dining here are profitable I don't know. I thought we'd be seeing an economic ghost town, with lots of boarded up shops, it's possible we still might and it's delayed. That's just retail though but it's doing better than I would have thought. But one big problem is all that unpaid rent from eviction moratoriums.
frugal-one
11-16-20, 5:14am
Now trying on clothes doesn't really seem unsafe to me. I would think a fitting room would be about the safest place in the store.
Small, confined space where masks surely were taken off......
JaneV2.0
11-16-20, 10:12am
And, again, this is the divide I was referring to. Yes, grateful to have a job! Running through a warehouse 8 hours straight at minimum wage, with other workers who have been who-knows-where, to provide the goods for folks staying in-house so they don't have to go out and "forage". (part sarcasm, part honest frustration)
This is not a "they"... this is ME!
In a pandemic, we want to minimize hordes of people out milling around, not to mention that packing and delivery of consumables has to be more efficient than the alternative. Although I was once an enthusiastic shopper, infirmity and COVID have rendered me an equally enthusiastic booster of home delivery. People working at these essential jobs should be paid and treated well, certainly. Eventually their jobs are likely to be automated.
ETA: I've worked more jobs than I like to think about that required me walking all day, so I can relate. I'm glad that part of my life is over.
catherine
11-16-20, 10:19am
Now trying on clothes doesn't really seem unsafe to me. I would think a fitting room would be about the safest place in the store.
I don't consider a dressing room any more unsafe than the rest of the store, but I can't remember the last time I actually was in a dressing room. It was probably a year or so ago. If I were compelled to buy something I needed to try on today, I would do it without too many concerns. But I buy clothes online mostly, so no need for dressing rooms.
happystuff
11-16-20, 10:22am
"In a pandemic", yes, things should change, but if I'm not mistaken this thread is about what people think long term changes will be. Again, I refer back to my initial post here - "I think a divide - socially and economically - is currently underway and widening."
"In a pandemic", yes, things should change, but if I'm not mistaken this thread is about what people think long term changes will be. Again, I refer back to my initial post here - "I think a divide - socially and economically - is currently underway and widening."
I agree, Happystuff, and I am sorry that your job involves being at risk for Covid. That is very hard.
It bothers me that we've been told the answer is to order groceries online or restaurant takeout, as though those essential workers are not being exposed to risk. It has seemed very elitist to me from the start, although I'm sure the workplaces are working hard to try to protect the workers against Covid, or at least I hope they are.
JaneV2.0
11-16-20, 11:01am
I agree, Happystuff, and I am sorry that your job involves being at risk for Covid. That is very hard.
It bothers me that we've been told the answer is to order groceries online or restaurant takeout, as though those essential workers are not being exposed to risk. It has seemed very elitist to me from the start, although I'm sure the workplaces are working hard to try to protect the workers against Covid, or at least I hope they are.
Could you explain how home delivery puts more essential workers at risk than in-person shopping does? Maybe I'm denser than usual this morning, but I don't see it. I don't think anyone is denying that being employed in an essential service exposes people to more risk than being at home does.
No, Jane, I was saying not that home delivery puts more essential workers at risk, but that the solution to have everyone go to delivery seemed to ignore the risk to the delivery workers.
JaneV2.0
11-16-20, 11:34am
I would think the main risk to drivers is at the warehouse, which should have strict guidelines in place to protect its workers. Hypothetically--with the typical no-contact protocol--I'd much rather be out driving around during a pandemic than standing in front of an endless stream of potential vectors.
ApatheticNoMore
11-16-20, 11:44am
"In a pandemic", yes, things should change, but if I'm not mistaken this thread is about what people think long term changes will be. Again, I refer back to my initial post here - "I think a divide - socially and economically - is currently underway and widening."
I don't think that's a long term change of the pandemic or is something that is CURRENTLY "underway". I think that divide LONG preexisted the pandemic and that most everyone was aware of it. It just made those with an office job who already knew they were lucky to have an office job, thank the stars again that they had one IF they were among the office workers allowed to work from home (this is not all offices and never was). I do think it exposed some to more risks than others, so there could be long term health fallouts in those who got covid and THAT is a direct result of the pandemic.
but that the solution to have everyone go to delivery seemed to ignore the risk to the delivery workers
In what world is everyone going to delivery? Maybe in the first month. But not now here. The store parking lots are fairly crowded and not just groceries. Is the issue that some elderly people have gone to delivery? Sigh. They aren't even seeing doctors for necessary doctor visits at this point, such is the level of fear out there. It's very sad.
But the thing about going to the store instead is it's very rarely just going to *a* store unless it's the type of store you go to all the time (groceries), it's going to 5 stores and wandering around for long periods trying to find things, to finally find what you want, so yea buying online does seem more prudent.
happystuff
11-16-20, 11:52am
I would think the main risk to drivers is at the warehouse, which should have strict guidelines in place to protect its workers. Hypothetically--with the typical no-contact protocol--I'd much rather be out driving around during a pandemic than standing in front of an endless stream of potential vectors.
There are more people who come in contact with those groceries being home delivered than just drivers. Those items are being picked off the store shelves after being packed somewhere, transported to the store, unloaded and moved around by one or more people before finally heading out to be physically put on the store shelves, where in-store shoppers may be passing them (within inches), touching them, etc. and the "picker" filling the orders is touching them, if the order is double-checked by another person to assure correctness, loading into the deliver vehicle may well be another person, etc.
The process is not as clear-cut as some folks believe it to be. Any one of the workers in this chain can potentially pass on the virus as invisibly as walking through the grocery store, itself. Yes, the home delivery system is safer for those staying in their homes receiving these deliveries to their doors - that is not the point I'm discussing here.
And, just a reminder, it might be prudent to continue to wipe down these items before bringing them into your home. They've come a long way.
happystuff
11-16-20, 11:54am
I don't think that's a long term change of the pandemic. I think that divide LONG preexisted the pandemic. I do think it exposed some to more risks than others, so there could be long term health fallouts in those who got covid and that's a result of the pandemic.
In what world is everyone going to delivery? Not here. The store parking lots are fairly crowded and not just groceries. Is the issue that some elderly people have gone to delivery? Sigh. They aren't even seeing doctors for necessary doctor visits at this point, such is the level of fear there.
But the thing about going to the store instead is it's very rarely just going to a store, it's going to 5 stores to finally find what you want, so yea buying online does seem more prudent.
You are missing the point I've been trying to make, so maybe the fault is mine, but in doing so, you are actually giving examples supporting the divide I'm talking about. Thanks.
Teacher Terry
11-16-20, 12:05pm
I have been shopping online for years so no real change for me. It lets me browse different stores without driving around. The only exception is groceries and pants. No matter how you shop people have to be involved as workers. I know some robots are used also.
ApatheticNoMore
11-16-20, 12:24pm
You are missing the point I've been trying to make, so maybe the fault is mine, but in doing so, you are actually giving examples supporting the divide I'm talking about. Thanks.
my examples (other than there may be health fallouts) support the point that a divide was underway that didn't already exist in very strong form before the pandemic? How? It struck me (not the whole idea struct me but the story made me feel bad buying groceries) before the pandemic when I heard of a retail worker at a high end grocery (it wasn't Whole Foods, not everything is about the evils of Amazon) having to work two full time retail jobs to survive and how brutal they were describing it, and they weren't even describing it for me but to a coworker. I emailed my bf, sad that they weren't paid better. Why that makes you very liberal ANM, you latte left-coast virtue-signaling liberal you, and what kind of income do you need to shop there anyway? Shrug. I have always earned ok money when I work (unemployment is another matter). I yam what I yam.
happystuff
11-16-20, 12:34pm
my examples (other than there may be health fallouts) support the point that a divide was underway that didn't already exist in very strong form before the pandemic? How?
Well, your tea ball shopping example is a good one. And, no, I don't think the divide existed in a "very strong form before the pandemic", I think it is growing wider and will continue to grow AFTER the pandemic - again, effecting "long term economics after the pandemic".
Actually, in re-reading your post, I think maybe there is also a divide in "attitudes" as well. I'll have to think on this more before pursuing it in the thread. Definitely food for thought in these discussions. Thanks to all.
JaneV2.0
11-16-20, 12:40pm
It's obvious there's a risk to grocery workers; isn't that why they got "hazard pay" for about a blink in time?
And of course we have at least a two-tier economic system. These are issues that will probably only be discussed when AI and autonomous cars and industrial robots take over.
Most of my friends are still shopping in stores--more judiciously and carefully, one hopes--but they're out there. Me, I'll opt for delivery.
ApatheticNoMore
11-16-20, 1:08pm
Well, your tea ball shopping example is a good one.
So I shouldn't have bought a tea ball? Ok, point taken, you may be right. There is a limit to how much I am going to ruminate on it in regret it and wear a hair shirt over it though. It was a reward to myself for eh a personal motivation goal, it doesn't matter really.
And, no, I don't think the divide existed in a "very strong form before the pandemic", I think it is growing wider and will continue to grow AFTER the pandemic - again, effecting "long term economics after the pandemic".
I suspect this might possibly be a location thing. I think there are parts of the country that don't have quite so extreme income divides, where you can be closer to making it in Lots Of Different jobs, where you can maybe live on retail wages. But that's hasn't been true in decades in expensive urban California (I find ways to make it work and they aren't all decent income although that's necessary, they are things like renting more affordable places etc. and well I'm not supporting dependents). I remember 15-20 years ago when things were different and life was much less harsh (but that was not 1 year ago before the pandemic, it was 15-20). But now the income divides here are extreme and often in your face (just the miles and miles of homeless tent cities alone - it's in your face and also I'm sure behind 4 walls much more than I EVER see). And the homeless were increasing every year before the pandemic. Just the extremes of wealth and poverty. The tall white mansions and little shacks, it's very much 3rd world levels. My boyfriend when looking for jobs has noted how amazing it is that most jobs don't seem to pay a living wage.
Actually, in re-reading your post, I think maybe there is also a divide in "attitudes" as well. I'll have to think on this more before pursuing it in the thread. Definitely food for thought in these discussions. Thanks to all.
I just about destroyed my health worrying about being sent back to the office, for reals, until I had to let it go, and adopt an attitude of whatever will be will be, the futures not ours to see, if I get the 'rona I get the 'rona. So I bristle at lectures on how I should be in the office when I can do my work from home, there is no reason I can't. And how bad it is that I'm not being exposed to the 'rona out of some sense of "the equality of the grave" when I don't even remotely live in an equal society anyway, it's not like I lived in "communist utopia" before, it's not like people far richer than me can't shelter it out, whatever fate they sentence office drones to.
catherine
11-16-20, 1:13pm
Well, your tea ball shopping example is a good one. And, no, I don't think the divide existed in a "very strong form before the pandemic", I think it is growing wider and will continue to grow AFTER the pandemic - again, effecting "long term economics after the pandemic".
Actually, in re-reading your post, I think maybe there is also a divide in "attitudes" as well. I'll have to think on this more before pursuing it in the thread. Definitely food for thought in these discussions. Thanks to all.
I get your point, happystuff. That is a good example--it's obvious that remote work, remote learning, and remote medicine are going to be business-as-usual. We all who can work, learn and visit doctors from the cozy comfort of our own homes will probably take it all for granted in 2-3 years after the pandemic is over. But then there is the world you describe--the people who support this new way of life. The "ivory tower" will become those who can remain sequestered and still make money. All the other employees will be scanning groceries, stocking shelves, driving deliveries, and being out in the world supporting those who can pick and choose when to leave the house.
The "ivory tower" folks will seek peace in the outside world, where they can choose to eat in a restaurant or go to the gym; the others will seek peace at home.
happystuff
11-16-20, 1:19pm
I get your point, happystuff. That is a good example--it's obvious that remote work, remote learning, and remote medicine are going to be business-as-usual. We all who can work, learn and visit doctors from the cozy comfort of our own homes will probably take it all for granted in 2-3 years after the pandemic is over. But then there is the world you describe--the people who support this new way of life. The "ivory tower" will become those who can remain sequestered and still make money. All the other employees will be scanning groceries, stocking shelves, driving deliveries, and being out in the world supporting those who can pick and choose when to leave the house.
The "ivory tower" folks will seek peace in the outside world, where they can choose to eat in a restaurant or go to the gym; the others will seek peace at home.
Thank you for putting the words to my disarrayed thoughts! :)
Teacher Terry
11-16-20, 2:00pm
But many of those so called ivory tower people pursued education and careers that allow them to work mostly from home. For myself working in human services if I was still working I couldn’t have done my job without meeting with clients. Yes I could have done the paperwork remotely. My friends that are teaching are mostly in the classroom. I know some that have retired or quit. Hard decisions for many.
ApatheticNoMore
11-16-20, 2:15pm
We all who can work, learn and visit doctors from the cozy comfort of our own homes will probably take it all for granted in 2-3 years after the pandemic is over.
well I don't think we are still going to be working at home in 2-3 years once the pandemic is over, but then neither will there be a pandemic right. We may take it for granted, we forget our traumas to a degree (to a degree we never do). I will forget perhaps how much I worried when they kept talking about sending us back to the office all the time (and never actually did so - not yet anyway!). It will just become another: "most of the things I worry about, never happen anyway" things.
I think those who think we will all work at home after this, just because we were among those who worked from home in a pandemic, are in fantasy land. I think there are VERY strong social good arguments for public policy to encourage work from home when possible (like less pollution and carbon use from commuting, like a transportation system that actually works because it's not overwhelmed with too many commuters - even those who HAVE to commute to workplaces probably appreciated that part). But that has never been part of policy making before so why should it be now? I wish.
But long after the pandemic is over the convenience of buying online with no deadly virus I talked about, yea it WILL be there. And your talking the average privileged I suppose working person who just doesn't have much time to shop after doing the mere 40 hours (yea I only work one job), the 30-40 minute 10 mile commute each way etc.. Did I mention I also buy less. Yea people might buy less in the future. But when they do it might be online. I had a hectic life, and I was forced to SLOW DOWN, and I realized, man that life was c-r-a-z-y, and if buying online when I do buy restores sanity, I'm inclined to do it, sorry, maybe I need a longer lecture on how this makes me a terrible person. I still go to the grocery store btw.
But many of those so called ivory tower people pursued education and careers that allow them to work mostly from home. For myself working in human services if I was still working I couldn’t have done my job without meeting with clients. Yes I could have done the paperwork remotely. My friends that are teaching are mostly in the classroom. I know some that have retired or quit. Hard decisions for many.
There is an assumption that ivory tower people and those outside had equal access to education at the outset which made the difference. Many jobs are now made obsolete by technology, offshoring (think radiologist, accountants, banking services are just a few), marketing, actor, singer or musician are valuable parts of our society and very well-educated but unemployed at present. Logistics from pickup to sales to delivery require education as well but the impact is very uneven. Don't get started on food production from seed to planting to harvesting and delivery all require education but not in the ivory tower grouping.
I read this type of comment quite often on this site and finally feel compelled to post.
Not every horse in the race of life had an equal start, equal food, equal safe support, equal training and equal access to opportunity to enter other races to practice life's racing skills. I have been on both sides of the ivory tower, inside and out, so try not to judge either view but to understand another's point of view.
catherine
11-16-20, 2:31pm
I think I was using "ivory tower" as a metaphor for anyone who can migrate to work-at-home full time--there is probably a lot of overlap between that group and the conventional "ivory tower" (high income, well-educated, privileged) but I'm assuming that this shift will generate a blurring of those lines. My rural VT neighbor for example works in accounts payable for a VT food industry and they went to work-from-home in the spring and the company announced that change will be permanent. So, I disagree with ANM. I think a lot of job will go back to office buildings, but there will be a pretty significant shift.
I am basically agreeing with happystuff that there will be a new divide.
I've read there's a movement away from brick and mortar offices; the pandemic experience has proved telecommuting works.
That move should have happened years ago, IMO.
ApatheticNoMore
11-16-20, 2:48pm
They have let us know in no uncertain terms they want us back in the office. If they don't bring us all back 40 hours quite yet, it is solely because they do grasp the reality of the pandemic as an actual health crisis, that's the reason, and the only reason. It's a good reason.
I do realize I'm lucky, I could be working somewhere the owner thought the whole pandemic was a hoax or any number of things, luck of the draw.
frugal-one
11-16-20, 3:13pm
I don't think that's a long term change of the pandemic or is something that is CURRENTLY "underway". I think that divide LONG preexisted the pandemic and that most everyone was aware of it. It just made those with an office job who already knew they were lucky to have an office job, thank the stars again that they had one IF they were among the office workers allowed to work from home (this is not all offices and never was). I do think it exposed some to more risks than others, so there could be long term health fallouts in those who got covid and THAT is a direct result of the pandemic.
In what world is everyone going to delivery? Maybe in the first month. But not now here. The store parking lots are fairly crowded and not just groceries. Is the issue that some elderly people have gone to delivery? Sigh. They aren't even seeing doctors for necessary doctor visits at this point, such is the level of fear out there. It's very sad.
But the thing about going to the store instead is it's very rarely just going to *a* store unless it's the type of store you go to all the time (groceries), it's going to 5 stores and wandering around for long periods trying to find things, to finally find what you want, so yea buying online does seem more prudent.
Here we are told not to come in unless it is a dire emergency. I had a prescription ok'd that normally I would have to have a blood test check to get. My last blood test was March 2019. A neighbor was told not to come to the clinic for a flu shot. Go to Walgreens or somewhere else.
Yes - this pandemic is really showing us the divide between those who can work from home and those who can’t. It isn’t along educational lines. Think of all the highly educated healthcare providers who can’t work from home, the highly educated educators, etc ...
The divide is not along educational nor income lines. This is a new divide.
ApatheticNoMore
11-16-20, 4:02pm
Yes - this pandemic is really showing us the divide between those who can work from home and those who can’t. It isn’t along educational lines. Think of all the highly educated healthcare providers who can’t work from home, the highly educated educators, etc ...
The divide is not along educational nor income lines. This is a new divide.
that I'll believe. SEVERE class divides are nothing new. I had a friend I used to hike with 7-8 years ago, moved here for a man and he was supporting her, used to earn a living in another state doing odd jobs like being a maid, asked me "how does the working class ever make it here? How can they afford to live, it costs too much". Yea I don't know.
But nurses and other health professionals earn good incomes. But they have been much more at risk of covid.
My bf earns an income that most would consider a high income (he only recently got a job that high paid though), but his office has forced him in, mine hasn't. And now there is a an employee with covid.
rosarugosa
11-16-20, 4:28pm
My former employer had already embraced WFH in a big way as a nod to work-life balance as a tool to attract and retain top talent. They have had everyone working from home throughout the pandemic and employees were even permitted to order chairs and other equipment so their home work setups would be ergonomically sound. I feel that post-pandemic, WFH will be even more of a thing because employees love it and companies can save on real estate costs. My employer was already starting to explore flexible workplace setups where people would not have their own personal workstations (this was in 2017). This would allow them to shrink their real estate needs. As they pointed out, employees were saving money on commuting and work clothing, so the company was looking to capture some savings as well. Of course, there would currently be some virus transmission concerns about the non-dedicated workstations, but hopefully this will go away at some point. Of course, not all employers will be as receptive to WFH as a new normal.
Tammy is right about this being a new divide. My husband and sister work in hospitals, so no WFH for them.
There will always be people who need to be dragged kicking and screaming into the future.
Our hospital is gradually (it takes years in large bureaucracies) transitioning to a hoteling concept for offices. No one has their own office - everyone grabs a cubicle based on their work location that day. because I moved into management in 2017, I was on the cusp of this change. In one of our locations I had a shared office space. Tiny office with two work stations that 4 managers shared when they were in that building. In our other 2 locations I had no dedicated office. I just grabbed whatever space was empty that day. This was not exactly planned - it was the result of growing too fast and not having enough space.
So I made my laptop my “office” and 99% of what I did was digital instead of paper. Other managers had big offices with lots of filing cabinets etc. I enjoyed being part of the new way, and often referred to my laptop bag as my “office” when people questioned me.
It was easier than requesting an office through the committee that allocated space. And it was in line with the new hoteling concept.
gimmethesimplelife
11-17-20, 9:36am
Things are getting worse in my neighborhood. So many layoffs, so much uncertainty. I'm realizing more and more each day how lucky I am to be employed. So many laid off hotel, restaurant, retail, airport, catering folks - what are all these people going to do in this age of increasing automation?
I am a big believer that we need more stimulus BUT we don't get to do what I did with the money from the IRS last Spring - I saved it. I'm thinking give us all 4K BUT we have to upload/provide receipts and SPEND it. I don't personally see the face to face economy coming back soon or ever quite as strong again AND I believe more automation and algorythms are coming.
I guess I can summarize: The past economy is not coming back, the status quo has snapped, now what? Rob
catherine
11-17-20, 9:51am
I am a big believer that we need more stimulus BUT we don't get to do what I did with the money from the IRS last Spring - I saved it. I'm thinking give us all 4K BUT we have to upload/provide receipts and SPEND it. I don't personally see the face to face economy coming back soon or ever quite as strong again AND I believe more automation and algorythms are coming.
I guess I can summarize: The past economy is not coming back, the status quo has snapped, now what? Rob
Interesting: so is the stimulus meant to circulate money back into the economy or to make people more secure individually? I personally don't see any reason not to save it if you can. It will eventually stream back into the economy once the economy itself feels safe enough to participate in as consumers again.
As liberal as I am, I think putting conditions on a stimulus check would be a logistical nightmare at best and Government overreach at worst (send the Feds your receipts?? Really?).
iris lilies
11-17-20, 10:18am
Interesting: so is the stimulus meant to circulate money back into the economy or to make people more secure individually? I personally don't see any reason not to save it if you can. It will eventually stream back into the economy once the economy itself feels safe enough to participate in as consumers again.
As liberal as I am, I think putting conditions on a stimulus check would be a logistical nightmare at best and Government overreach at worst (send the Feds your receipts?? Really?).
Sure, that would require the Feds to hire more cubicle workers to tally up the receipts, ensuring better Democratic numbers because federal gubmnt workers skew Dem. plus it gives people jobs!
Win-Win.
Teacher Terry
11-17-20, 10:20am
My kids saved their’s which was wise as they probably won’t be returning to work until spring I would guess.
happystuff
11-17-20, 10:46am
Interesting progression of the thread - nice!
As for the work from home a couple pages back, I have a sibling that works in a major corporation that has not been told out-right, but it has been hinted that the work from home will be permanent. This corporation leases most of its buildings and is looking to recoup that money. As has been stated by others, I agree that I think this will be a trend by a significant number of companies.
As for additional money from the government - any money I have received has been saved and I would do the same with any future monies. Having just obtained a new job, I'm not very trusting of the future - who knows what will happen. I still have bills to pay, so any extra funds will continue to go into savings. Yay! for all those folks with enough money for conspicuous consumption, but that just isn't happening in this household - at least not yet. :)
gimmethesimplelife
11-17-20, 11:53am
Interesting: so is the stimulus meant to circulate money back into the economy or to make people more secure individually? I personally don't see any reason not to save it if you can. It will eventually stream back into the economy once the economy itself feels safe enough to participate in as consumers again.
As liberal as I am, I think putting conditions on a stimulus check would be a logistical nightmare at best and Government overreach at worst (send the Feds your receipts?? Really?).I'm thinking a blast of spending may create a green shoots cycle in which more jobs come back/are created. Rob
I suspect we will come out of this with a lot of non performing loans on the books, as well as a lot of back rent liability. And a few generations of new government debt to service.
All those empty offices can be transformed into low income housing. We’re gonna need it when landlords can start evicting. People are months behind on rent.
All those social programs can be replaced by a universal basic income.
All those medical plans can be replaced by Medicare for all.
There’s solutions to be found. But the system despises solutions that take jobs or power from those currently on top of the mountain.
gimmethesimplelife
11-17-20, 3:31pm
All those empty offices can be transformed into low income housing. We’re gonna need it when landlords can start evicting. People are months behind on rent.
All those social programs can be replaced by a universal basic income.
All those medical plans can be replaced by Medicare for all.
There’s solutions to be found. But the system despises solutions that take jobs or power from those currently on top of the mountain.Very very very real take and very true. Rob
Certain welfare programs are distributed as prepaid credit cards. A stimulus could be handled the same way to ensure the money is spent and not saved.
happystuff
11-18-20, 10:47am
Certain welfare programs are distributed as prepaid credit cards. A stimulus could be handled the same way to ensure the money is spent and not saved.
Unless they are tracking every purchase for every person, this would be fine. I'd use it for groceries, gas, etc. and just put my regular money for these necessities in savings. :)
Teacher Terry
11-18-20, 11:17am
Tammy, all good ideas. If there was a universal income you might have people moving to rural areas where COL is lower because they wouldn’t be so dependent on jobs. This could be either good or bad. Good if people used the time to have huge gardens, etc or to pursue passions such as art and they wouldn’t have to worry about the level of sales. Bad if people just sat idle, developed substance abuse issues because of boredom, etc. SSDI recipients should be excluded because their benefits are based on work history and frequently more than what UI would be.
happystuff
11-18-20, 12:45pm
Tammy, all good ideas. If there was a universal income you might have people moving to rural areas where COL is lower because they wouldn’t be so dependent on jobs. This could be either good or bad. Good if people used the time to have huge gardens, etc or to pursue passions such as art and they wouldn’t have to worry about the level of sales. Bad if people just sat idle, developed substance abuse issues because of boredom, etc. SSDI recipients should be excluded because their benefits are based on work history and frequently more than what UI would be.
Still early in this discussion, but I don't think a universal income should mean people shouldn't "work". There are all kinds of jobs that folks could do - even on a rotating/short term basis. Some things that come to mind include clean-up of various parks, beaches, highways, various volunteer jobs such as Meals on Wheels, hospital helpers (aka old-fashioned Candy Stripers), assisting at public libraries, etc. And I don't mean for these to take away from already salaried employees, but as "help". And, also, having all necessary back-ground/security checks for those areas that would need/require such a thing. Just throwing out some ideas.
Why does the term universal income mean only government payments? I have believed, perhaps incorrectly, that a universal income meant that there was a base income defined but regular employment would continue, only to be topped up by supplemental benefits when needed to meet the defined base.. Those unable to work would still have to meet the same criteria as they do at present.
A Scandinavian country tried a full government base income for two years to test the idea for those unable to find employment. Their conclusion that it didn't help anyone. People need to change their jobs or location if necessary. Jobs could be changed by education, training or apprenticing different skills.
https://www.weforum.org/agenda/2019/02/the-results-finlands-universal-basic-income-experiment-are-in-is-it-working/
https://www.weforum.org/agenda/2018/05/how-we-make-basic-income-reality-Rutger-Bregman
BTW, I have watched a number of sources where the physically compromised with excellent job skills are now employed by working from home where their support structure was in place. Companies did not have to create accessible settings onsite for them.
ApatheticNoMore
11-18-20, 1:21pm
the main problem has always seemed to be that it is highly likely to be inflationary. You get $1000 a month, your landlord raises your rent by $1000 a month in response. Cheers! Or tell me why that won't happen? Seems better to make the necessities of life cheaper.
happystuff
11-18-20, 1:28pm
Why does the term universal income mean only government payments? I have believed, perhaps incorrectly, that a universal income meant that there was a base income defined but regular employment would continue, only to be topped up by supplemental benefits when needed to meet the defined base.. Those unable to work would still have to meet the same criteria as they do at present.
I see what you are saying, but I thought that was basically what a minimum wage was.
ApatheticNoMore
11-18-20, 1:36pm
I will say that if the basic income only goes to those who most need it, it will not be inflationary in the way I described, only a UNIVERSAL basic income (like Andrew Yang's proposal) would be.
I don't see why raising the minimum wage wouldn't be a the first way to try to deal with the problem either though, why subsidize low wages?
catherine
11-18-20, 1:37pm
Since Andrew Yang is the big proponent of the UBI, here is how he explained it (https://www.foxnews.com/politics/andrew-yang-explains-his-universal-basic-income-plan-why-he-is-the-anti-trump-for-2020), as well as the rationale.
Basically, everyone gets it. It's not welfare, and it's not a supplement. It's just a check in the mail to be used by anyone for anything, which he says will stimulate the economy. So if you don't need it to pay your bills, you can go out to dinner.
I get what ANM is saying, though. I can see the opportunistic danger of inflation scooping that up. But, who knows.
Why does the term universal income mean only government payments?
Some nonprofits have run UBI pilot projects. It does not have to be government money.
Some nonprofits have run UBI pilot projects. It does not have to be government money.
Yes, but only governments have pockets deep enough to go beyond small scale experiments into permanent programs because only governments have the power to tax and redistribute income on the scale required.
I heard on the radio a supermarket chain in the area has 1000 jobs to fill. The job market is shifting with the demise of restaurants.
I heard on the radio a supermarket chain in the area has 1000 jobs to fill. The job market is shifting with the demise of restaurants.
That makes sense. And one of our members has jumped on the new opportunity.
I think one thing the pandemic has highlighted is the bleak future for low skilled labor.
I think one thing the pandemic has highlighted is the bleak future for low skilled labor.
So how should society equalize access to educational opportunities? This is not just a US problem but Canada's and other countries as well. Right now in my community, there is uneven internet access and classes are being offered virtually. A school board with fewer students in a largely rural community providing benefits to society has less tax $$$$ left over when needing to provide transport vs a higher urban density with greater number os students. Tax dollars are per student.
Food and shelter security impact the degree and hours of education received as well.
I am hearing over and over and over again that education is critical for society's members and future but few seem to agree on making the investment to ensure better outcomes.
There is one state, maybe Georgia, where a philanthropist is supporting early childhood education and access with very positive results for a child having a positive approach to education and educating the community members on the importance of education.
So, Idahl, what is your plan for ensuring better outcomes in education. I am not being snarky but genuinely serious.
The model in healthcare that I have followed in life as well is - assess, plan (exploring all options),
implement and evaluate.
ApatheticNoMore
11-20-20, 12:53pm
It won't work anyway as a solution to poverty, if everyone had a great education, the number of good jobs would not necessarily be any more than there are now. I mean I suppose you could make the case a more educated citizenry would attract more good jobs to move to a country, but I think there are lots of other factors weighing in there as well, like costs etc., and if we aren't even doing it as part of a larger policy framework to create more good jobs ... it seems unlikely to work on it's own.
This doesn't mean education is a bad thing, it just means it won't solve poverty, it might solve the number of people going around proclaiming covid a hoax. So okay education is a social good and boy do we need social good (or will we just produce ever more sophisticated covid deniers?). But solution to poverty? I can't see it.
So what every labor economist knows — but it still surprises most other people — is that the United States leads the group of rich nations, the Organisation for Economic Co‑operation and Development nations, in the production of low wage jobs. About 25 percent of our jobs pay less than two-thirds of the median wage. That’s about $20,000 dollars a year. We are really, really good at creating jobs that barely make the poverty level for a family.
https://www.pbs.org/newshour/economy/women-over-50-face-cant-find-jobs
happystuff
11-20-20, 12:59pm
So how should society equalize access to educational opportunities? This is not just a US problem but Canada's and other countries as well. Right now in my community, there is uneven internet access and classes are being offered virtually. A school board with fewer students in a largely rural community providing benefits to society has less tax $$$$ left over when needing to provide transport vs a higher urban density with greater number os students. Tax dollars are per student.
Food and shelter security impact the degree and hours of education received as well.
I am hearing over and over and over again that education is critical for society's members and future but few seem to agree on making the investment to ensure better outcomes.
There is one state, maybe Georgia, where a philanthropist is supporting early childhood education and access with very positive results for a child having a positive approach to education and educating the community members on the importance of education.
So, Idahl, what is your plan for ensuring better outcomes in education. I am not being snarky but genuinely serious.
The model in healthcare that I have followed in life as well is - assess, plan (exploring all options),
implement and evaluate.
I am a huge advocate for education! but that doesn't mean there will be enough of those jobs for everyone. How many college degree graduates are unable to find a job in the fields in which they were educated? Or even related fields? From another perspective, there are the low/unskilled jobs that - personally - I believe will always need to be done. Yes, there is inequity in education, but there is also inequity in opportunity.
So how should society equalize access to educational opportunities? This is not just a US problem but Canada's and other countries as well. Right now in my community, there is uneven internet access and classes are being offered virtually. A school board with fewer students in a largely rural community providing benefits to society has less tax $$$$ left over when needing to provide transport vs a higher urban density with greater number os students. Tax dollars are per student.
Food and shelter security impact the degree and hours of education received as well.
I am hearing over and over and over again that education is critical for society's members and future but few seem to agree on making the investment to ensure better outcomes.
There is one state, maybe Georgia, where a philanthropist is supporting early childhood education and access with very positive results for a child having a positive approach to education and educating the community members on the importance of education.
So, Idahl, what is your plan for ensuring better outcomes in education. I am not being snarky but genuinely serious.
The model in healthcare that I have followed in life as well is - assess, plan (exploring all options),
implement and evaluate.
In addressing a skills gap, I think it perhaps more productive to talk about training than “education”, with all it’s baggage of politics, ideology and status anxiety. We should probably re-examine the idea of the four year degree as a professional credential, in favor of looking at ways to deliver training and assess skills for any given role in the workplace. Maybe more shorter-term training and certification programs on a continual basis over the course of a career. The technical colleges and military training systems might be better templates to look at than a higher education system that increasingly resembles multi-tier marketing schemes producing a lot of useless credentialing and questionable debt.
At younger ages, I think we should try making the system as diverse as possible along a spectrum from home schooling to private and charter schools to the traditional public education so beloved of teachers unions. Reinforce success and starve failure based on results. Maybe look at the old systems of vocational education or apprenticeships to produce as many employable people as possible.
I think part of our challenge is adapting education/training delivery systems to the needs of the 21st century, and part is changing our attitudes and expectations concerning education. I think right now we rely on it too much as a status marker rather than for itÂ’s economic value or the old education for itÂ’s own sake value.
I think one thing the pandemic has highlighted is the bleak future for low skilled labor.
What sorts of jobs are you thinking of?
In a similar discussion about 25 years ago in a college class, I asked “but if this is our definition of assimilation (ie: one component being not working blue collar jobs per the professor’s definition) and if everyone gets assimilated as per the ideal - then who will change our oil and stock the supermarket shelves?”
I was arguing that we need a broader definition of assimilation. We need better working conditions and pay for all jobs. Because we need someone to change our oil.
The professor was not impressed. I think she didn’t know what to do with a 30 -something student bringing the real world to the classroom.
And, what's wrong with blue collar jobs? (Which are, of course, not all unskilled, some require considerable training and expertise.)
I suspect an economy where we all code apps from home isn't going to work so well.
And, what's wrong with blue collar jobs? (Which are, of course, not all unskilled, some require considerable training and expertise.)
I suspect an economy where we all code apps from home isn't going to work so well.
Not until someone comes up with an app that actually changes the oil. And not one that just schedules some freelance worker to come to your house and change your oil in your driveway.
What sorts of jobs are you thinking of?
By low skilled labor? Jobs requiring little by way of training or skill. Often found in retail, food service or Congress.
In a similar discussion about 25 years ago in a college class, I asked “but if this is our definition of assimilation (ie: one component being not working blue collar jobs per the professor’s definition) and if everyone gets assimilated as per the ideal - then who will change our oil and stock the supermarket shelves?”
I was arguing that we need a broader definition of assimilation. We need better working conditions and pay for all jobs. Because we need someone to change our oil.
The professor was not impressed. I think she didn’t know what to do with a 30 -something student bringing the real world to the classroom.
Wasn’t that a bit like discussing your need for a haircut with a barber?
By low skilled labor? Jobs requiring little by way of training or skill. Often found in retail, food service or Congress.
Hmmm.
There are a lot of low/semi-skilled jobs in agriculture and infrastructure maintenance that I don't think will be done by robots or via Zoom anytime soon. Real-world jobs involving labor and such.
Face-to-face retail and food service I can see passing the way of the buggywhip however.
catherine
11-20-20, 4:47pm
Face-to-face retail and food service I can see passing the way of the buggywhip however.
Step inside any airport and see how servers have been replaced by iPads.
Step inside any airport and see how servers have been replaced by iPads.
Or those things that buzz to tell you to come fetch your food.
A relative has a job in robotics--engineering, I think. That should be good for awhile.
We need an expansion of various trade and tech schools with apprenticeships, like Germany has.
ApatheticNoMore
11-20-20, 5:12pm
Germany has a high wage economy though, yea not gonna work here.
Today I heard on the radio UPS is looking for a bunch of both regular and seasonal employees.
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