View Full Version : What changes do you expect to see in Western socities in the next ten years?
gimmethesimplelife
6-11-11, 7:01pm
Just another quick question I'd like to throw out there - What changes do you expect to see in Western socities in the next ten years? (I was going to say American society but I did not want to leave our Canadian, British, and other international posters out). I am going to go off and think this one over myself and come back and post later. Rob ETA: I spelled societies wrong above, lol, gimme a day off and look what happens!
Hmmm..., that's a good question. Will be going off myself and thinking about that one too before returning.
Less consumption, of disposable objects & of unnecessary things. Less driving of personal autos. More community!!! K. Now out to the garden. Oh... & more gardens!
:)
ApatheticNoMore
6-11-11, 10:55pm
There's really no way to get away from: economic conditions continue to worsen, is there? Even if unemployment stays where it is at present (already quite high), considering all the state budget cuts and so on coming ...
It doesn't seem we actually have any MODELS of how to actually collectively have a decent lifestyle on less (yes some INDIVIDUALS may be able to do it, but those are still the relatively fortunate people, not the people in dire need of money, with no jobs, for whom unemployment has run out etc. etc.). We desperately need the collective models I think. I know many communities are grasping but ...
Interesting question. I've pondered it a little but could think on it for a long time and maybe come up with something a little different.
I think the United States will become more isolated from much of the world as we are forced to focus more on our own problems and less as a global peacemaker. Inspite of increasing unrest in third world countries over food and water issues we'll not be the global super power of the last several decades and will be forced to handle the burdens of aging baby boomers and the limits of natural resources.
Whether it's peak oil, climate change, politics or the general economy, we'll become focused on community issues and more centralized by region. Sustainability in things like local food production, mass transit, and renewable energy will become more popular, but it will be too little too late and there will be a decline in quality of living, at least by 20th century U.S. standards. Much travel will be replaced by electronic communications among families, friends, and businesses.
Actually, today. I was thinking about what the upcoming generation will bring to the scene. There are some delightful young folks out there who seem to sense the problems of the world and want to help. And another group with a lack of direction and little more than a sense of survival. I wonder which group will influence the most.
Anyway, that's my first take on things. I'll look forward to what others think.
Something to ponder Rob---hey, I've missed seeing you.
gimmethesimplelife
6-12-11, 2:12am
Something to ponder Rob---hey, I've missed seeing you.Thanks! Am busy here up at the North Rim but I am around. Rob
gimmethesimplelife
6-15-11, 4:30pm
I have done some thinking and so am revisiting this thread. My guess is that the services sector may shrink a bit due to more economic stress on the average person - think of more people cutting their own hair, doing their own yard work, taking care of their own kids in the case of more one wage earner families due to layoffs and age lack of job opportunities and age discrimination. Think of people starting to make their own clothes and what a hit that would be to retail in general. Think of more homeschooling, thereby reducing the need for teachers and thereby reducing some consumerism as homeschooled kids would not have to compete based on clothes they wear. I am also thinking there willl be less travel in the future, both business and personal, thereby reducing the need for convention centers, resorts, business hotels, car rental companies, banquet services, etc. And in restaurants, I think there may be a shakeout in the next few years due to fewer people eating out and too many restaurants competing for a dwindling pie. In general, I don't think the future is especially bright for the average American service sector worker. What do you'all think of my take? I think I will come back again and post some POSITIVE things I think may happen in the future, I don't think it's all doom and gloom. Rob
I don't think it's doom and gloom either, although it will be different. Not so much for us, or the folks here on this forum. As my husband likes to say, if the us population bought and consumed like we do, the economy would crash overnight! But maybe a little of this is what we are seeing now as people are pulling in and thinking twice about purchases.
But there is a model out there. Germany. And probably some other European countries but I'm most familiar with Germany. The whole country seems to be solidly middle class with just a few on either end of rich or poor. They don't live to work, but work to live, and income is to maintain a middle of the road life that is friends, family, festivals, and not a lot of glitz and glitter. Their long term plans don't usually include a big boat and cabin at the lake, bigger house or fancier car. In fact, it seems most of their long term plans are just to the next year, or season, or festival. They aren't total grasshoppers, living only for the moment, but if you aren't always thinking about the next house or car or expensive do-da, then life gets pretty easy, and can be planned a festival away.
I guess it's more like economic maintenance rather than economic growth. If you desire new things all the time, and spend your time thinking about the next big expensive thing you want to save for, well then that kind of lifestyle won't appeal to you. And I guess it's hard for some to understand a life of just living..wash, rinse, and repeat. But for the most part they all seemed pretty happy. There didn't seem to be a lot of 'is this all there is?', I guess cause what it was, was pretty pleasant. And for most of them that WAS all there was, but it wasn't a jail sentence. Meeting your friends at the cafe for a beer and brat was living. Doesn't take a lot of money or a new car, or new furniture for that.
someone once said, I don't know who, that life is just a lot of little moments strung together, interrupted by a very few big moments (death, birth, wedding, etc)
I think in this country we have forgotten how to recognize, or acknowledge, the real little moments and replaced them, in our minds, with things like a trip, or new furniture, or a new car, or going to the movies, or out to dinner, or whatever, making these consuming (pun intended) moments 'THE' substance of a life. And unintentionally or not our parents helped to drum this notion into us from a very early age. We were always encouraged to save our allowance for the next big thing instead of being encouraged to spend it on 'frivolous' things like getting a soda with a friend at the malt shop (do they even still exist?). And making money, not necessarily the use of it, becomes the goal. More is better, we've all been told this. But most of the time, really, more is just more.
You know, I believe if we just step back and think about it, we can remember what it is that really makes a life. I know some won't be able to do it and those are the ones who will suffer the most as society changes, because there won't ever be enough for them. They might never be able to recognize their own life and only feel regret for what they didn't get. And I'm not just talking about wealthy people, or those who lost wealth in this tough economy. There are plenty of middle class to poor people who never recognize this moment and only look for a future unrealized moment.
So, I guess this is a long winded way of saying it won't be so bad. Or it doesn't have to be so bad. I guess the biggest challenge is how do you teach a people who think they are living, how to live. How do you convince them that what they thought was living up to now was really just smoke and mirrors?
I'm not completely oblivious to real economic hardship. People need a roof over their heads (whit heat and air and electricity, of course) food, clothing, and medical care. But I wonder if a lot of the economic hardship now days is not due to the fact that we want more. Or feel that we need more and not being able to get more is a step backwards somehow. You need a roof over your head, but that roof doesn't need to be 3000 sq feet. You need clothing but you don't need designer, name brand clothes.
If there was a way I could convince everybody to save the price of a restaurant trip, just one trip, and instead get some rocks or blocks or whatever and build a fire pit in their backyard, well, the restaurant industry would definitely suffer as people realized how much more fun and memorable it is to build a simple fire and invite over your friends. Get a package of weenies, some marshmallows and beer, and break out the guitars. Now that's living!
Rob I would agree with some of your thoughts.
I think there is going to be a shift in the kinds of businesses that thrive. A lot of business and infrastructure is now based on the idea of a centralized location for work, schools, etc. Life is compartmentalized in an industrial sort of fashion because we have been working with an industrial model economy for quite some time now. Home stuff is done at home, work stuff is done at an office building, school stuff is done at a school building and transportation, both personal and public, are geared towards shuttling people to and from these locations.
This is already not nearly as necessary as it is prevelent. A huge percentage of the paid work done in this country does not have to be accomplished in any specific place. This model remains the status quo because it is what the generations currently in charge are most comfortable with, not because it makes the best economic or environmental sense. With a faltering economy, rising gas prices and an upcoming population of "digital natives" who are comfortable collaborating through the use of technology I doubt companies can and will continue to pay for that kind of overhead.
Currently, people tend to think of making a living in terms of finding a job working for someone else. I think as more people struggle with finding jobs more people will get creative and start their own businesses. Even businesses will move from having more on-staff employees to having more contractors. Think of the app business, as an example, or games for facebook. Instead of having a large in-house staff to develop apps or games that may or may not be popular, those companies allow anyone to create an app or game, shifting the risk from the corporation to the person creating the app and paying them on the tail end of it instead of upfront. If the app is popular, you make money. If it isn't, you don't. Simple as that. I think publishing and other forms of media are heading in the same direction. Other platforms, like etsy and ebay, open up avenues for the average person to sell physical goods to people all over the world for a modest start-up cost. This will make marketing and small business skills a must for the future generation. Creativity and adaptability will be big too. I know this goes against conventional wisdom, but I think higher education as a means of proving ones abilities will be less and less important in a lot of fields. If I am taking the risk instead of the employer, my actual skills and the value of my work will be more important than my credentials. This will mean higher education will have to provide some actual value to command a price from people.
I think it will be interesting to see changes in architecture in the coming years. For a while it was all bigger bigger bigger, but studies I've seen have shown that the younger generations favour smaller places and put more of a premium on location. This makes sense to me. I have an iPad. I don't need a library room and a home theater room and a game room. I have all of that sitting in my favourite chair in the living room. Also, if I live in the right location I don't need a home bowling alley, I have one down the street. With younger generations tending to be less formal, entertaining isn't necessarily going to require a full dining room and china for 25 people. We can eat off mismatched plates buffet style and sit on the living room floor.
OTOH, with higher rates of unemployment and skyrocketing health care costs, I think you'll see a lot more people in multi-generational living situations like mine. We have combined households with my father. This gives us the financial security of three adults capable of working and contributing to the household expenses, three adults capable of caring for the children and eventually, when dad is elderly, six people capable of taking care of him. We have an economy of scale as far as food and other goods, the ability to share transportation and it costs the same to heat this house whether one person lives here or seven. The cost of this is in loss of privacy and private space, but it seems as though the current levels of privacy and personal space are cultural anomalies. Most people in most of the world at most times have survived with less privacy and personal space.
I agree with you, Rob, that homeschool will continue to grow in popularity. Industrial model schools are not equipping kids for the future they are entering. Pair that with more parents at home because of unemployment or working from home and a relatively educated population and a lot of parents are going to choose to educate their kids. Enterprising educational professionals are already taking advantage of this and creating programs for homeschool children that offer interesting, creative educational experiences that also provide social opportunities for the kids and, lets face it, a break for the parents. :) Also, with more people setting their own hours, adults will move away from a more 9-5 schedule and towards a more natural one and (I speak from experience here) it gets to be a hassle having some members of the family on a traditional schedule. With homeschool, I don't have to schedule family vacations around standardized testing, or family outings around the school day. I don't have to wake tired children up an hour earlier than they would otherwise wake up and deal with the fall-out of that all day.
I agree with redfox that community is going to be increasingly important. The combination of economic hard times, in which people have to band together, and a shift away from less centralized places of work and school will create opportunities in communities for some types of businesses. Coffee shops, for example, have flourished with the availablity of cheap wi-fi. People like to get out of the house, whether to do some work or meet with friends. This will also help things like community gardens, parks, etc. as people are going to be looking for places to gather. Third places.
I think people will have more time and less money, overall, but the lack of money per person may be less significant on a day-to-day basis if people do, in fact, move to smaller digs or share space with other families or generations of their own families. Housing is a huge chunk of a lot of people's budgets right now, as is transportation to support a commute. Health care is the other biggie and I really don't know how that will play out. I hope there is some creative solution out there.
Anyway, those are some of my thoughts. I could be totally wrong.
ApatheticNoMore
6-15-11, 9:16pm
Maybe the best model of a no growth (or even negative growth) society is Japan before the quake. That's a real pointed suggestion since Japan is considered an economic "failure", so suggesting such a "failure" is really a success, is a bit radical. But Germany still has GDP growth right? That's not sustainable.
Of course we are nothing at all like Germany and are never going to be (we don't have that manufacturing expertise for one thing), we're nothing like Japan either really, whatever model arises will be specific to here.
But I don't think you can have economic contraction without real pain, to suggest so you really have to ignore the effect of these things on those who are already at the bottom. You have to ignore evidence like the fact that food stamp use is at record levels! And yes welfare state measures, like food stamps sure, do help to mitigate the pain. But we don't really have all that many of them, and so yea there is a lot of pain.
BTW I would turn to CRIMINALITY to survive, before I ever moved back in with my folks (don't worry, there is not any great risk that I'll turn to criminality ;), but I'm just saying if it came down to those choices ....). The conditions at my folk's place make sleeping on the streets seem sanitary.
Mighty Frugal
6-15-11, 10:38pm
I don't think it's doom and gloom either, although it will be different. Not so much for us, or the folks here on this forum. As my husband likes to say, if the us population bought and consumed like we do, the economy would crash overnight! But maybe a little of this is what we are seeing now as people are pulling in and thinking twice about purchases.
But there is a model out there. Germany. And probably some other European countries but I'm most familiar with Germany. The whole country seems to be solidly middle class with just a few on either end of rich or poor. They don't live to work, but work to live, and income is to maintain a middle of the road life that is friends, family, festivals, and not a lot of glitz and glitter. Their long term plans don't usually include a big boat and cabin at the lake, bigger house or fancier car. In fact, it seems most of their long term plans are just to the next year, or season, or festival. They aren't total grasshoppers, living only for the moment, but if you aren't always thinking about the next house or car or expensive do-da, then life gets pretty easy, and can be planned a festival away.
I guess it's more like economic maintenance rather than economic growth. If you desire new things all the time, and spend your time thinking about the next big expensive thing you want to save for, well then that kind of lifestyle won't appeal to you. And I guess it's hard for some to understand a life of just living..wash, rinse, and repeat. But for the most part they all seemed pretty happy. There didn't seem to be a lot of 'is this all there is?', I guess cause what it was, was pretty pleasant. And for most of them that WAS all there was, but it wasn't a jail sentence. Meeting your friends at the cafe for a beer and brat was living. Doesn't take a lot of money or a new car, or new furniture for that.
someone once said, I don't know who, that life is just a lot of little moments strung together, interrupted by a very few big moments (death, birth, wedding, etc)
I think in this country we have forgotten how to recognize, or acknowledge, the real little moments and replaced them, in our minds, with things like a trip, or new furniture, or a new car, or going to the movies, or out to dinner, or whatever, making these consuming (pun intended) moments 'THE' substance of a life. And unintentionally or not our parents helped to drum this notion into us from a very early age. We were always encouraged to save our allowance for the next big thing instead of being encouraged to spend it on 'frivolous' things like getting a soda with a friend at the malt shop (do they even still exist?). And making money, not necessarily the use of it, becomes the goal. More is better, we've all been told this. But most of the time, really, more is just more.
You know, I believe if we just step back and think about it, we can remember what it is that really makes a life. I know some won't be able to do it and those are the ones who will suffer the most as society changes, because there won't ever be enough for them. They might never be able to recognize their own life and only feel regret for what they didn't get. And I'm not just talking about wealthy people, or those who lost wealth in this tough economy. There are plenty of middle class to poor people who never recognize this moment and only look for a future unrealized moment.
So, I guess this is a long winded way of saying it won't be so bad. Or it doesn't have to be so bad. I guess the biggest challenge is how do you teach a people who think they are living, how to live. How do you convince them that what they thought was living up to now was really just smoke and mirrors?
I'm not completely oblivious to real economic hardship. People need a roof over their heads (whit heat and air and electricity, of course) food, clothing, and medical care. But I wonder if a lot of the economic hardship now days is not due to the fact that we want more. Or feel that we need more and not being able to get more is a step backwards somehow. You need a roof over your head, but that roof doesn't need to be 3000 sq feet. You need clothing but you don't need designer, name brand clothes.
If there was a way I could convince everybody to save the price of a restaurant trip, just one trip, and instead get some rocks or blocks or whatever and build a fire pit in their backyard, well, the restaurant industry would definitely suffer as people realized how much more fun and memorable it is to build a simple fire and invite over your friends. Get a package of weenies, some marshmallows and beer, and break out the guitars. Now that's living!
I love this. So much food for thought. It reads like a speech (one that I would listen to and not allow my mind to wander and ponder if there are any refreshments at this function) Truly a lovely read-thanks!
Well thank you Mighty Frugal. I guess saying this here is kind of like preaching to the choir as so many here have found this truth as well. I just wish everyone could know this. Life would be so much easier if they did.
Oh and I totally serve refreshments. On the patio under the arbor. Or by the fire pit.;)
There's really no way to get away from: economic conditions continue to worsen, is there? Even if unemployment stays where it is at present (already quite high), considering all the state budget cuts and so on coming ...
I'm not a doomer. While it looks like we haven't hit bottom yet, I don't think that the currently rich societies in the world as a whole are going to crash.
What worries me is the possibility that education, infrastructure, and health in most of the U.S. could cause the country to drastically fall in economic and social development. How do you locate a business based on biotechnology of microelectronics in a region where the community consensus is that most of modern science is against their religion?
The alternative to accepting and implementing new technology is trying to sew T-shirts cheaper than they can in Honduras or Bangladesh.
gimmethesimplelife
6-24-11, 5:12pm
I have been doing more thinking and have come back to revisit this thread with something positive.....As I have stated earlier, I don't think the future is all doom and gloom. Something wonderful I see happening in the future is perhaps people in general having a little more time and perhaps life slowing down for many.....With fewer jobs out there, I would be willing to bet priorities will continue to change, and the truly superflous (think of high school kids having brand new cars) will continue to exit many lives. I remember reading once about this woman who lived through the Depression and she stated that for her it was a blessed time as she had enough food to get by on and a place to sleep and plenty of time to read, which seemed to be her passion. I am thinking that there may be more of that - people living simpler lives whittled down to basic needs and a few wants and the pursuit of simple passions - reading would be a good example for me personally. Few granite countertops and more time spent in local parks and doing the free things listed under community in the paper. Doing more thinking on this, will come back when I have more ideas.....what do you'all think of my take here? Rob
I love what I'm reading here, but I'm not sure I'm seeing it yet. As a relatively well-off but also very slow-lane, simple liver with a small budget and no job stress, the last month has nevertheless been a rather scary lesson in what "overwhelming" can feel like. Serious illness, a mindless battle with the IRS's "Na Na We Can't Hear You, Just Send The Money" Department, a total computer crash, new cell phones that will not accept long distance calls but still are sucking wads of cash out of our life, a car that refuses to stay repaired, several unexpected expenditures, lost income from being unable to do my thing for a month, massive wildfires making evacuation a daily possibility, and an infestation of kissing bugs - most of it in one week!
I guess what I'm feeling is that even a modern life that appears on the surface to be low and slow has a lot more potential for upheaval than one might think. I'm hoping that you are right, that there is a shoring up of community network and resources and a general re-appraisal of what Success and Good Living means, that can offer support and reassurance on a more personal level. This would be a definite plus to a slow-down.
Nothing major in my crystal ball--more of the same: The rich will be richer and the poor will be poorer and the vanishing Middle Class will have joined the poor. Food prices will continue to rise and house sizes and car sizes will continue to decline. Climate will become more problematic and we can expect some interesting pan-demics.
Cheery, aren't I?
On the brighter side, many will become more community-oriented and more buying local aware.
I only have to realize the rapid changes and cost of living that have taken place in the past 30 to know there are many more to come. Seems like there will be far less retail stores, more people renting vs buying, the rich will continue to get richer at the expense of the environment and everyone else, and I think the changing weather will have a profound effect on how we live and eat. Kind of hard to grow food when you have droughts or floods. I think it will be a bumpy ride - hold on to your hat!
A steady and incremental increase in life expectancy.
Oh shucks, there was an entry posted day before yesterday related to my last entry (above), and now I see it's been deleted. Anyhow, to further add to my above post, I just heard a radio segment on aging, life-expectancy, Centenarians, and the medical advancement of maintenance procedures (supplements, etc) that (according to the broadcast) will increase the average life-expectancy to somewhere around 150 years. And that's just the start.
gimmethesimplelife
7-9-11, 2:29pm
Oh shucks, there was an entry posted day before yesterday related to my last entry (above), and now I see it's been deleted. Anyhow, to further add to my above post, I just heard a radio segment on aging, life-expectancy, Centenarians, and the medical advancement of maintenance procedures (supplements, etc) that (according to the broadcast) will increase the average life-expectancy to somewhere around 150 years. And that's just the start.I'm not thrilled about the idea of dying but I am also unthrilled about the prospect of living to be 150 years old.....Talk about a retirement funding crisis, and having to work longer and longer and longer years.....Rob
Originally posted by Gimmethesimplelife.
I'm not thrilled about the idea of dying but I am also unthrilled about the prospect of living to be 150 years old.....Talk about a retirement funding crisis, and having to work longer and longer and longer years.....Rob See, that's just it, where we are right now, we aren't seeing the future as it will be. I personally believe there will be way more to offer the inhabitants of planet earth (shall it survive) than we are seeing and living today. Slogging away at nowhere jobs, making nowhere money, living nowhere lives, scurrying all about like ants. Agh, there's more to it than that. One just has to revisit evolution, and see that we too, in this day and age, are living nothing but a caveman lifestyle. Life and the way we live it will progress and advance beyond our wildest dreams.
There is a new book out called The New Normal that address the societal changes that will need to take place if we are to have a decent future for all in this country.
Thank you so much for the recommendation Pinkytoe! I was born with a learning disability so am a poor reader, and, have never read a book (entirely) from cover to cover in my life, but today (this morning) I decided I'm going to change all that. At best, it's going to be one long, hard fought struggle/battle for me, to actually get through a whole book, but I'm up for the challenge. I'm not pinning any high hopes on the outcome although, but maybe this book would be a good start.
gimmethesimplelife
7-10-11, 2:09am
Thank you so much for the recommendation Pinkytoe! I was born with a learning disability so am a poor reader, and, have never read a book (entirely) from cover to cover in my life, but today (this morning) I decided I'm going to change all that. At best, it's going to be one long, hard fought struggle/battle for me, to actually get through a whole book, but I'm up for the challenge. I'm not pinning any high hopes on the outcome although, but maybe this book would be a good start.Is this the new David Wann book? I am looking forward to reading it too if it is.....And Mrs. M, good luck on getting cover to cover with it! Rob
Yes, it is the new David Wann book who is the author of Affluenza.It is not the easiest read for some reason but has some interesting ideas.
Originally posted by Gimmethesimplelife.
Is this the new David Wann book?I'm not sure Rob, the name of the title is- The New Normal. (Just working off of Pinkytoe's post/read suggestion). Thank you so kindly for the warm and encouraging words.
This is exactly the reason for my question[would you live like it is the year 1800.]. Due to listening,reading,examining all that is around me for the last 10 years. I foresee a time where the skills and knowledge that sprang from the struggle of life in the times before 1800.Most now lost arts.The inventions that sprang up for convience is now strangling our lives and world.It is just not a question anymore.I see it as the lost arts need to be taught again because they will be the only way to survive and it must be on a community level.There are going to be so many who will need help to survive.
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