Francois Hollande.. next President of France?

[dado potato]

Woo.

It looks like Hollande is best placed for the May 6 runoff election in France.

Tea Baggers in the USA may note that Hollande's proposed top marginal tax bracket is 70%. The incumbent President Sarkozy never said the proposed 70% marginal income tax for the highest income recipients was a bad idea.

[bae]

Is it apples-and-apples to compare the US tax code and the French Code général des impôts/Livre des procédures fiscales? I suspect not.

As to the label "tea baggers", well...

[Alan]

Hollande's policies could prove problematic for the European economy as well as that of the United States. His desire to renege on the debt reduction agreement between France and Germany being the most pressing problem.

I would expect his strong showing in the runoff election to negatively impact global markets beginning tomorrow. Of course the Socialists may see that as a small price to pay for the social justice of taking more money from a preferred demographic, and in this country, people can inappropriately disparage their favorite demographics as well. Win/Win!!

[LDAHL]

I understand the Dutch government fell over the weekend as well. They are the second largest EU creditor after Germany. Things are not looking good for the Euro.

[Gregg]

If Monsieur Hollande wins I suspect Angela Merkel's options are going to become quite limited very quickly. That does not seem to bode well for the EU. I'm not sure what the top tax rates in France have to do with anything in the US, but even if some correlation exists it will likely be moot if France tries to issue ultimatums to its creditors.

[iris lily]

Tangent to this thread, I was listening to NPR over the weekend and a commentator, talking about the next election cycle and the Tea Party, had to use a throwaway adjective "angry" as in "angry Tea Party members." I would like to know the adjective he uses for progressives who support Obama. Methinks that there isn't one. I do like NPR but honestly, I am often jarred by their blatent bias.

P.S. this commentary was not the psychology of Tea Party activists but it was about assessing their likely voting practices come fall.

[ApatheticNoMore]

I would like to know the adjective he uses for progressives who support Obama.

I think the term for progressives who support Obama is oxymoron. Although with the choice between Romney or Obama I can see why they would be angry.

[Gregg]

I would like to know the adjective he uses for progressives who support Obama.

Betrayed?

[JaneV2.0]

I think there's plenty of anger to go around on both sides of the divide.

[dado potato]

Results of the election cannot be reported until all the polls in France have closed. But exit-polling indicates that the French electorate still wishes to see Sarkozy's departure. Hollande therefore is expected to be the victor today. I have read since I started this thread that Hollande's proposal is 75% (rather than 70%) income tax on the rich.

I am curious about how it will play out. I notice there are dire predictions that the rich will want to emigrate in the worst way. We shall see.

[puglogic]

Betrayed?

Perhaps slightly disappointed, but not overly so if one takes time to realize the obstacles to making any real change in this country. Much good has come of this administration, as gleefully as people like to criticize the parts they've not agreed with. We are a nation of complainers.

Hollande situation = fascinating.

[razz]

Each society makes choices that are rarely based on the usual expected media-created list. Maybe people simply didn't like Sarkozy's closeness to Merkel based on the long history of French-German relations. People usually vote with their emotions and then try to rationalize their decision. Often, it is not a pro vote for a candidate but rather an anyone-but-him vote. Most of the time, people keep their opinions to themselves especially Europeans.

Any European vote will, IMHO, have little if any relation to the North American vote whereas the impact of each is reciprocal but the electorate of either will not give a hoot about the other.

[IshbelRobertson]

Whilst the French election has repurcussions for ALL of the EU - it's Greek's absolute refusal to accept the austerity measures which may bring down the whole house of cards that is the EuroZone.

[LDAHL]

Whilst the French election has repurcussions for ALL of the EU - it's Greek's absolute refusal to accept the austerity measures which may bring down the whole house of cards that is the EuroZone.

I think you're right. I'm curious what the next step might be for Greece (or Italy or Spain, for that matter). Absent the EU, who would lend them the funds to maintain the level of government services they insist upon? Or are there pockets of wealth they can tax that aren't readily apparent?

[Alan]

.... it's Greek's absolute refusal to accept the austerity measures which may bring down the whole house of cards that is the EuroZone.

So far, austerity measures across the EU have less to do with austerity than with containing the damage already done. I can't seem to find many reduced expenditures in the following graph.

http://mercatus.org/sites/default/files/fiscal-austerity-newnew580.jpg (http://mercatus.org/sites/default/files/fiscal-austerity-newneworiginal.jpg)

[Gregg]

Interesting. It appears Greece had actually done a better job regulating spending than some others. I'm not sure if that indicates an even larger than expected train wreck around the corner or not.

[IshbelRobertson]

Well, I'm off to Greece mid-week - and the Euro rate against the GBP has meant my dosh will go further. It's expected to go even lower by the time we get there.

[LDAHL]

Interesting. It appears Greece had actually done a better job regulating spending than some others. I'm not sure if that indicates an even larger than expected train wreck around the corner or not.

Wouldn't that be the result of complying with the terms of earlier bailouts?

[Gregg]

Wouldn't that be the result of complying with the terms of earlier bailouts?

That's kind of what I was thinking, but if I have it right Papandreou announced the first round of big spending cuts in December of 2009 and the first actual bailout ($145B) was in the spring of 2010. Alan's graph goes all the way back to 2002.

I suppose looking at the increases on a percentage basis is more telling than the absolute number of euros spent. In that case Greece is up 50%+ since 2002, even if it isn't that large an increase in actual euros. Of course spending in Spain is up over 70%, the UK almost 70%, France over 35%, Italy just under 30% all in the same time frame. From what I know the UK was the most solid of those economies a decade ago. If that is correct it appears they have moved quite quickly to catch up to the others. It would be interesting to overlay Germany on this graph.